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Post By
bd2999 
Moderator

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
In Reply To
Late Great Donald Blake 
Moderator

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 7,414
Subj: Re: Not all of it.
Posted: Thu Mar 17, 2022 at 10:15:29 am EDT (Viewed 113 times)
Reply Subj: Not all of it.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 at 04:36:37 pm EDT (Viewed 148 times)



    Quote:
    But I think that if we actually garner some peace through diplomatic means, that'll mean, if we're serious, giving something to the Russians. If the sanctions fail, (and I think they're likely to fail) it's either diplomacy or escalation... or the prolonged state of annexation of Ukraine by Russia while simultaneously a total crippling of Russia and Ukraine in the process. Kind of a worse case scenario for the Ukrainian, which is important to consider since those are the people we're purporting to care about.


I think it depends on the goals of the sanctions, right? If it is to get Russia to stop in their tracks than they already failed. I have to imagine the goal is to push Russia to call it off early and come to the table in a worse position than otherwise. Sort of "you want your economy back than you need to argue on our terms".

Honestly, the current situation is pretty terrible for all involved. Alot of needless death and suffering.


    Quote:
    I think it's pretty essential that Putin be given several off ramps to divert course from what isn't just an illegal and atrocious military invasion, but one whose highest cost is inevitably going to be exacted against the Russian people. If the incentives for Putin that we create don't include what appears to him as a favorable option he'll have no material reason to change course. The point is there's only so much muscle and braggadocio here can accomplish, given the US overwhelmingly is unwilling to get involved militarily, and even if we were willing it would risk things like WW3 and a nuclear exchange. There's a very real ceiling the West has in terms of what we're prepared to do in support of Ukraine. That's clearly part of Putin's calculus for better or worse.


Hard to argue with any of this. I do think that this is potentially a goal of sanctions, at least in part, as it pretty much puts Russia in a poorer spot at the table.

An out has to be given but working some agreement that does that must also walk the line by not appearing to be appeasement either. As too weak a response makes it seem like it is fair game to invade.



    Quote:
    Meanwhile, much of the people that live in the south and the east of the Ukraine identify as ethnically Russian, primarily speak Russian, and generally show political support for Russophilic leaders. I think it might be a reasonable compromise to cede this territory to the Russians. [Along with reestablishing that series of buffer states between Russia and NATO like Finland, Ukraine, etc.] Especially when it's conceivable that many of those Ukrainians would prefer to be governed by Russia. And even more especially in places like the Donetsk Oblast and the Luhansk Oblast. I'm still doing research on this though. This is all predicated on the idea that those people would prefer Russian annexation to Ukrainian governance or would at least be willing to make that sacrifice to achieve an armistice. Honestly, I think it's going to take at least year or so for anyone to come to terms with what the people of Ukraine especially in these key regions actually want.


I guess, but at some level is this encouraging this behavior? AS they effectively override the decision making of all of these buffer countries as to what they may or may not want to do while ceding parts of Ukraine to Russia.

I do agree that they need an out though as if left no good options it may make the situation more desperate and even worse. I am not even clear what you do to prevent this sort of action from happening going forward.

It is just a shame so many innocent people need to suffer for the stupidity of their leaders.






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