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Post By
Upper_Krust

Member Since: Fri Aug 21, 2015
Posts: 337
In Reply To
Bootch 
Manager

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 7,234
Subj: Re: Next few months will be interesting
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 at 08:03:27 am EDT (Viewed 160 times)
Reply Subj: Re: Next few months will be interesting
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2019 at 10:56:07 am EDT (Viewed 158 times)



    Quote:
    Did Gordon Brown do that? I can't quite remember (and too lazy to look it up), but I think he just chugged along until the regular election date.


Precisely.


    Quote:
    The government with the DUP has a majority. I'm hopeful that the unsettling of the two big parties at the European elections serves as a wake up call that the Conservatives need to get behind leaving the EU or face getting the sack at the next General Election.
    Seeing through the result of the Referendum will also allow Corbyn to get off the fence and start pushing his non-EU related agendas.


Both Conservatives and Labour are in a terrible position and both almost guaranteed to lose half their vote at the next election.


    Quote:
    I've heard different things about this. According to Jacob Rees-Mogg and Ian Duncan Smith, it's already in law that we can leave on 31st October, but others seem to disagree.


Its in Law that we leave 31st of October. HOWEVER, if it looks like the next Prime Minister is going to have us leave with No Deal (the only sensible option at this point) then Parliament can issue a vote of no confidence in the Government. The MPs get to vote (and they are 75% Remain) and if the motion is carried it forces a General Election.


    Quote:
    Possibly. I don't think Corbyn really wants a General Election, himself, as both the big two parties have tanked in the opinion polls.


Both the big parties have been sitting on the fence because taking a side costs them effectively half their electorate.


    Quote:
    Who can say though? It'll be an interesting few months seeing how it does pan out.


Mathematically, looking at the electoral map, I can only see the Brexit Party winning a General Election (at this point). However, winning won't necessarily be enough.

The winning Party needs to be able to form a Government - meaning it needs allies to give it a working majority.

Its possible the Brexit Party could win but not have enough seats from its allies (Conservatives, DUP) to give it a working majority of 326. Technically though you only need 323 because Sinn Fein never vote in Parliament. Currently there are 313 Tory seats and 10 DUP.

If not then the second biggest party gets the chance to form a coalition government. So it could be a: Lib Dem + Labour + SNP + Claid Cymwu + Green Coalition.




You address Omnipotence...tread carefully.
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