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Post By
Grey Gargoyle

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 14,774
In Reply To
Upper_Krust

Member Since: Fri Aug 21, 2015
Posts: 337
Subj: Re: The positions are pretty simple...
Posted: Wed May 29, 2019 at 10:11:15 am CDT (Viewed 280 times)
Reply Subj: Re: The positions are pretty simple...
Posted: Wed May 29, 2019 at 04:57:51 am CDT (Viewed 280 times)



    Quote:

    To me I see the (current) Left-Right divide along the two philosophies of Equality of Outcome and Equality of Opportunity.


That's an interesting definition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equality_of_outcome
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_opportunity
Thanks for the information. \:\-\)


    Quote:
    As far as I know, France (especially Southern France) is very Left Wing (with large numbers of Communists),

If I had to define the current French social model, I would say that it is (dysfunctional) social democracy.
https://www.strategie.gouv.fr/sites/strategie.gouv.fr/files/archives/CGSP-note-model-social_EN-le-20-12-OK.pdf
The French Communist Party has been a shadow of his former self since the 1990s.
In the South West, politicians have been influenced for a long time by the ideas of the 1900s' Radical Party. Contrary to what the name might imply, it was actually a centrist party. Currently, in term of ideas, their successor is clearly the party of the current president.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_Movement
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_R%C3%A9publique_En_Marche!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism_and_radicalism_in_France
In the South East, it is more Right Wing.


    Quote:
    so I was amazed Marine Le Pen won the majority of the vote in the European Elections.


It was expected : 50% didn't care to vote.

Still, contrary to the appearances, 23% is not a real success for her.

She was hoping 25%. That's what she needed to get real leverage over the European Parliament.

On the contrary, Salvini (34%) has clearly become without any doubt a kingmaker in Italy and, maybe, even in Europe as well.

In France, people were amazed by the success of ... the Green Party (13%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_Ecology_-_The_Greens
This election may have saved the party, actually.


    Quote:
    Obviously I don't have your insight into the changes happening in France these past years. Could be the EU (at this juncture anyway) is a better option for France.


I think that Europe has been an opportunity for France but France has not forseen the consequences of some of the shortcomings of the European Union. For example:
- 28 countries integrated in such a short length of time.
- deficiencies of the intracommunity VAT.
- no federal law enforcement agency (NB: Europol is not one).
- no federal border and coast guard agency before 2015.
- no European prosecutor to investigate and prosecute transnational frauds.
- post-1989, France & Germany no longer have had the same goals and the same planning.
- underestimation of the correlation between the public debts of the member states and the value of the €uro.
- during the 2008 bank crisis, the member states were the first line of action when it became necessary to help the private banking sector. Each state helped its own banks. There seemed to be little or no coordination at the European level.
Et cetera.


    Quote:

    But I would have thought the bigger problem with the EU is the Lobbyists

IMO, the lobbyists are everywhere. In my country, the corruption and revolving doors are even worse at national level.


    Quote:
    I thought the primary economic problems in Europe (for countries like Greece) started once they adopted the Euro.

I am not sure about that.
They really started in 2008-2009 with the exposure of the European banks to the US subprime crisis. It had a domino effect and turned into an economic crisis in Europe.
At the same time, some of the member states (such as France & Greece) were already heavily indebted.
The €uro is not a bad currency per se. Actually, even nowadays, the €uro is the second largest reserve currency as well as the second most traded currency in the world after the US$.
https://www.ft.com/content/5859a498-2948-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7
The paradox of the EU is that, contrary to the USA & China, it is a political dwarf and an economic giant at the same time.


    Quote:
    If that's the case how can the EU survive without the UK? Also one of the Big Four.


In my opinion, it is not the same because the United Kingdom never joined the €urozone and the core of the European Union is the €urozone.

Italy is one of the founding members and has been part of the process of the European economic integration since the very beginning in the 1950s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schuman_Declaration (1950)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Paris_(1951)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_Declaration (1951)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benelux_memorandum (1955)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messina_Conference (1955)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noordwijk_Conference (1955)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaak_Report (1956)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venice_Conference (1956)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Conference_on_the_Common_Market_and_Euratom (1956)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Rome (1957)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euratom_Treaty (1957)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merger_Treaty (1965)

If Italy decides to leave the €urozone, then, there will be an unprecedented financial crisis in the €urozone and, in this case, it is very likely that it would be the end of the European Union as we know it.

It doesn't mean that there wouldn't be another multilateral body in Europe to replace it but it would not work in the same way.


    Quote:
    The NGO Ferrying (that Italy recently made illegal) was always going to push the Italian voter more to the Right.


IMO, the recession is also to blame.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annalisagirardi/2019/02/01/italy-falls-back-into-recession-as-the-world-fears-global-economic-slowdown/#23d992b2225f


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