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Subj: It was an interesting night...
Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 at 08:30:23 am EDT (Viewed 198 times)
Reply Subj: I'm still musing over the results
Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 at 05:05:11 am EDT (Viewed 215 times)
Hey BK Ray,
Quote:Bullet points so far
Quote:Brexit have done exceptionally well.
It was slightly down on what I thought it would be. Possibly due to the low turn out (particularly in Leave voting areas)
Quote:Lib Dems have also done an amazing job.
Quote:When you add pro-remain against pro-exit (and by this I do include PC and SNP) there is a very heavy margin against the leavers.
It was certainly a clear margin, not sure how 'Heavy' it was though.
Quote:However, we do have to factor in the fact that this time, everyone was allowed to vote, such as Polish, Greeks etc. Also, some national parties will still have a % of leavers, albeit low.
Exactly, it was slightly skewed to favour Remain...though your unlikely to hear that be reported by the Mainstream media. It was clear from very early in the night they were going with the "...But if you add up all the other parties" line.
Incidentally, I watched the BBC coverage and they switched their 3 panelists 3-4 times.
1st Group: 2 Remain, 1 Leave
2nd Group: 2 Remain, 1 Leave
3rd Group: 3 Remain
4th Group: swapped SNP for one of the other Remainers
...I'm sure that was just all pure chance though.
Quote:There was also a lower turnout this time.
...and a disparity between Remain area turnouts and Leave area turnouts.
Quote:I would prefer Labour to adopt a remain position and Tories for hard brexit. It would feel like a 'proper' choice, albeit neither party wants this as fear losing voters. Well, that happened anyway....
Yes the problem with that approach is the vast majority of the Labour vote in the North of the Country voted to Leave. Whereas a large part of the Conservative vote in the South voted to Remain.
So any way you slice it the two big Parties are going to lose votes.
One of the Pollsters last night said in a General Election the Brexit party would get about 20% with the Lib Dems getting about 20%. That means both the Tories and Labour would be on 25% (or less) factoring in the other Parties.
I think the arithmetic is going to be crucial. The next government would look like being either:
Conservative + Brexit party Coalition
Labour + LibDem + Green + SNP + Plaid Coalition
I'm assuming Change UK will join the LibDems.
Quote:Gove vs Watson?
aka The end of the Tories.
You address Omnipotence...tread carefully.
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