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Member Since: Fri Aug 21, 2015
Posts: 337
In Reply To
Unstable Molecule

Location: Calgary, AB Canada
Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 2,923
Subj: Answers within...
Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 at 09:14:17 am EDT (Viewed 232 times)
Reply Subj: What's happening in the British parliament?
Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 at 01:03:14 pm EDT (Viewed 359 times)

Hey there, I'm in the UK, so I'll give my take on things.

    I'm by no means up to speed on Brexit, so please let me know if I'm completely out to lunch. But with the third failure of Teresa May's proposal for Brexit, and her subsequent resignation, it feels like parliament is extremely dysfunctional. They can't agree on anything, so literally nothing seems to be getting done.

The #1 Problem from the start is that Parliament doesn't represent the will of the People.

The people voted 52% to Leave the EU but the Ministers in Parliament are about 75% Remain supporting (including Theresa May which is why we had all the problems trying to leave the EU in the first place).

Both main parties are split with the Conservatives about 60/40 for Remain and (the second biggest party) Labour about 90/10 for Remain (weirdly their leader privately supports Leave even though publically he's for Remain).

The Parliament majority has tried EVERY dirty trick to block, delay, overturn and otherwise derail the Brexit process from the start.

    And without agreement, it seems inevitable that Britain is heading towards a No-Deal Brexit, which would be a disaster.

Actually I would argue that a No Deal Brexit is the best and ONLY solution to the current crisis.

The only people saying it would be a disaster are the same people who argue against Brexit happening at all and those same people pushed the same lies twice before when the UK chose not to adopt the Euro currency (they claimed it would be an economic disaster...history lesson: IT WASN'T) and again when we voted for Brexit (they said we would lose 800,000 jobs immediately...history lesson: WE DIDN' have been on the rise).

So those touting a No Deal would be a disaster (and you'll hear it time and time again from the media*) are the same people who have already lied to us twice before.

*Equate it to Russian Collusion in the US mainstream media over the past 2 years. Keep repeating the same lies over and over and eventually some people will be deluded into believing you.

    I feel like whoever is May's successor will have the same challenges and the same result - a hung jury.

Possibly, but the problem for the Conservatives is that if they don't deliver Brexit on October 31st their party will be absolutely (and irrevocably) destroyed by the (newly formed) Brexit party*

*Set to EASILY win the European elections here (results later tonight).

    Is there a way out?

The Way Out is to get Boris Johnson in (or another less popular Brexit supporting candidate) and take us out of the EU with a No Deal Brexit.

    Does parliament secretly (or overtly) want a second referendum,

Remainers want to stop Brexit happening altogether (AT ANY COST...even sacrificing their own Party) and a second referendum is one attempt to do just that.

    ignoring the democratic will of the people?

The EU has a demonstrable history of overturning the results of Referendum (they have done so a half dozen times before in other countries...notably TWICE in Ireland). I had hoped the UK was 'TOO BIG' a country for them to simply undo the result but they have schemed it brilliantly from the start and remember they have effectively 75% of the British Parliament helping them...and 95% of the mainstream media.

    Will a second referendum even produce a different result?

Hard to say. I don't think it would yield a different result mainly because I think a lot of people are very angry at having our Democracy undermined.

    Is there even time for any of that?

Currently what's likely to happen is the following:

1. European Election Results tonight: expect Brexit party to win by a large margin and the Conservatives to end up back in about 4th-5th place with around 5% of the vote.

2. Conservative Leadership Race: Boris Johnson (who says he'll take us out with No Deal); favourite among Conservative voters SHOULD win, BUT remember 60% of Conservative ministers (who vote for the final two candidates before the leader is chosen by supporters) are Remainers and they are already trying to undermine Boris.

3a. If Boris wins, he'll try to take us out with No Deal on October 31st.
3b. If a Remainer or Soft-Brexiteer wins, then its basically Theresa May all over again and the Conservative Party dies at the next election.

4a. If Boris wins, Parliament may ask for a vote of no confidence in his Leadership (to stop a No Deal). If so, all Ministers vote (and remember its still 75%/25% in favour of Remainers) and in the event the Conservative Remainers vote against Boris, we go to a General Election.

5a. If a General Election happens and we STILL haven't left the EU, then I'd expect the Brexit Party to take a lot of seats in Parliament off both the Conservatives AND Labour. However, the Brexit Party may undermine the Conservatives more allowing Labour to be the biggest party (which would give them the first chance to form a minority government).

    I know some of the regulars around here are citizens of the UK, so I'd appreciate your opinions.

Its both simple and infinitely complex.

    Thanks in advance.

Hope the above helps. If you have any other questions I'll be happy to answer.

You address Omnipotence...tread carefully.
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